Just like India and Pakistan, North Korea is now a nuclear power. Iran will soon join the club. The irony is that it seems that nobody can do anything about it. The direction in which things are moving suggest that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will soon be a thing of the past as more and more of its members will choose not to fulfill their obligations under Article VI of the Treaty to engage in good faith efforts to achieve nuclear disarmament.

Experts are certain that sooner or later Japan and South Korea will reconsider their nuclear options and as soon as Iran detonates its own nuclear devise, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will also jump in the fray. According to Los Angeles Times, Brazil has recently inaugurated a uranium enrichment program and several other countries including Argentina and South Africa are on the verge of beginning theirs. The report says that Australia, which has large supplies of natural uranium, is also considering an enrichment program [ Ref 1 ].

One of the reasons for this rush to join the nuclear club is the collapse of the security arrangements that had kept the world in balance all throughout the Cold War. Almost all of the developing and underdeveloped nations were part of one defense pact or the other. Even the so called non-aligned nations found a way to exploit the super power rivalry to protect their security interests. But as the Supreme Soviet lost its moorings and the United States of America emerged as the sole super power, the need for various security pacts or a defense treaties also disappeared.

Now every country finds itself alone and responsible for its own defenses. Pakistan, a traditional participant in most of the U.S. sponsored regional defense arrangements, does not enjoy the security of South Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) or Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) in the post cold war world. India, its arch rival, on the other hand, that had always championed the causes of non-Align movement is the closest strategic partner of the U.S. Iran, another Cold War ally of the U.S. is now run by a regime that has a totally fascist agenda based on its anti-American and anti-Semitic ideology. It has to find a way to be able to continue challenging the Judeo-Christian powers.

Similarly many of the Warsaw Pact nations also find themselves defenseless and exposed in a world without the Soviet Union. Some countries in the Middle East like Syria, Iraq and Egypt that found it convenient to side with Moscow are still struggling to make sense of the changed world. Gone are the days when their governments could play Washington against Moscow. Now whether they like it or not there is only one super power and they will have to deal with it. And most of these countries do not like it. They are afraid and feel insecure. And the signals coming out of Washington have not helped much.

U.S. declaration that it intends to expand the scope of circumstances under which nuclear weapons could be used, exasperated the situation. The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) broadened potential nuclear targets to include Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria, China and Russia. According to William M. Arkin in the Los Angeles Times (“Secret Plan Outlines the Unthinkable,” 3/10/01), the US planed to use nuclear weapons in what would formerly have been conventional missions. The NPR specifically stated that the U.S. will consider using nuclear weapons against China in a military confrontation over Taiwan, nuking Iraq should that country attack Israel or another country, launching a nuclear attack against North Korea should it attack South Korea and using nukes in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Nuclear Posture Review also declared that the US may use nuclear weapons in retaliation for a non-nuclear attack, or “in the event of surprising military developments.” According to Arkin, “officials are looking for nuclear weapons that could play a role in the kinds of challenges the United States faces with Al Qaeda.”

According to NPR, in addition to broadening the potential use of nuclear weapons, Washington planed to more fully integrate nuclear forces in conventional warfare and intended sweeping upgrades for the US nuclear arsenal. The NPR included plans to modify conventional cruise missiles, along with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, to carry nuclear warheads. It also called for the development of “bunker busters,” nuclear weapons that would be used in conventional conflict to destroy underground complexes. The NPR called for more resources to be dedicated to upgrading the US nuclear weapons infrastructure, in order to further develop, produce, and test nuclear weapons [ Ref 2 ].

Countries like Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea have long nursed a fear that the U.S. is bent upon making them subservient to its “hegemonic” agenda. They sincerely believed that the only way to save themselves from being blackmailed, threatened and attacked by Judeo-Christian and capitalistic powers is to develop their own nuclear capability. For them the acquisition of the weapons of mass destruction was not a luxury but a necessity weapon for self defense. And the messages that were conveyed by documents like the Nuclear Posture review confirmed their apprehensions. That’s why they could not be stopped from pursuing their nuclear programs.

Consequently, as the situation exists today, it is very hard to convince any country not to pursue its own nuclear project. And the fact that the development of nuclear weapons is much cheaper than acquiring the conventional ones complicates the situation drastically. Nuclear weapons are basically poor nation’s weapons – they cost less and are easy to develop.

Another factor that encouraged the poor nations to believe that they can succeed in owning the nuclear bomb without any hindrance from outside was the absence of an agency with adequate authority to enforce the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on them. There were states that detonated their nuclear devises and were not punished in a manner that could have served as deterrence for others. The best examples of such states is that India and Pakistan.

So here we are. Another country has gate crashed the nuclear party and many others are in line. The most important question is whether some of the new members of the nuclear club will transfer nuclear assets to the non-state entities? This is not an ordinary question but an existential one. The world has to find the answer if it wants to survive this crisis.

Read more about the nuclear powers in part two of this article, due out later in the week.

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Source: FamilySecurityMatters.org